Plated Butterfly

The Butterfly Effect A Shares Spread Clouds Destroy The City Of Steel Plate

1 April, the Commerce Department released data, the international iron ore price agreement, led, in March of domestic iron ore prices to rise significantly. Month average price of domestic iron ore 1565 yuan / ton, up 10.68 percent from the previous month.

A stock market seems to have foresight. Day, the overall decline of steel plate, the average decrease to 8.32%. Some small steel companies, such as new steel stock (600782.SH), Tangganggufen (000709.SZ), are also based on limit-down close.

At this point just entered the second quarter, many domestic steel enterprises under overwhelmed by the plight of the first quarter, another questionable performance geometry.

Jing Yi Cui Guotai Junan researchers to newspaper reporters that shift the cost of large steel companies is far stronger than that of small and medium capacity, so come back overwhelmed by iron ore prices, Baosteel shares (600019.SH) and other industry leaders in performance not significantly affected.

Price rises was underway

“The domestic spot prices, mainly higher shipping costs.” Cui Jing Yi analysis.

Shipping costs rise, it is because in February the main Asian and European steel prices are announced with the CVRD iron ore contract price reached in 2008 rose 65% agreement.

Then the price of domestic iron ore that respond to a change since the beginning of the decline, a new high, early in March, including tax as high as 1,600 yuan / ton, up 65% compared to last year’s average price, which equaled the international markets gains. The small and medium steel companies, is the domestic iron ore prices this round of the biggest victims.

“For the medium-sized steel enterprises large influence. They use relatively larger proportion of stock, such as Chengde (600357.SH), Handan Iron & Steel (600001.SH), Tang and other steel stocks.” Cui Jing Lai, said the 3 10% increase the month is not too much, but cumulative, then a significant impact on the iron and steel enterprises.

In contrast, Baosteel, Wuhan Steel shares (600019.SH) and other large steel enterprises, since the main import orders signed a long-term, basic from the domestic spot market prices.

Wuhan Iron and Steel Group, Wuhan Iron and Steel Trade ore subsidiary, Director of A Pragmatic told this reporter that the price of domestic iron ore has little effect on the Wuhan Iron and Steel, the group of about 80% of the direct procurement of iron ore are from abroad.

Shun Humanistic understanding to morality Securities researcher also said the steel industry, the domestic spot market iron ore, mainly for procurement of small iron and steel enterprises, the data on the large steel companies do not have too much impact.

But since 2008, and continuously high iron ore prices, and there are suspense overseas negotiating process, the market for a quarter of the steel companies into question.

“Large-scale iron and steel enterprises, the costs are transferred to the downstream capacity is stronger.” Humanistic understanding to morality, said.

Cui Jing Yi said Baosteel and other large enterprises without the fear of a quarter. “Its product prices to cover the cost increase. Such as Baosteel and so there is surplus.”

March 19, issued in May 2008 Baosteel steel prices, the price of ordinary hot-rolled products up 300 yuan, while cold rolled products are up 400 yuan.

“Purely on the performance of Baosteel, this monthly price adjustment model, Baosteel single month increase in monthly earnings per share 0.02 yuan.” IFC Securities researcher Zhou Tao analysis in its report.

Return value?

The internal problems outside the storm led to the sharp decline in the value of the steel plate has fallen into the range of questions was underway.

“Now the average price-earnings ratio of steel plate has been very low, but have no confidence in the market for steel plate.” Cui Jing Yi analysis, avoiding the steel plate market funds, mainly because “too many uncertainties.”

“In particular, the demand can support the downstream current iron ore prices. Once the drop in demand, the listed company’s profit margins will be compressed. It is not clear because of performance, resulting in steel plate in the doldrums.” Cui Jing Yi said.

On the other hand, domestic steel prices and iron ore suppliers, Australia’s annual price negotiations still in progress, the end result might be higher than with Brazil to sign a 65% gain.

However, the prospects for the industry consolidation already clear. With 3 Months have fed more than industry consolidation are completed, several major steel investment value of listed companies also looms.

For Baosteel, Anshan Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel and so gives Guotai Junan and SW unanimously “overweight” rating.

Guotai Junan Securities in its research report that analyzes the fundamentals of the steel industry did not occur in the short term deterioration in the first quarter year on year profit growth or even expected to exceed 50%. “The industry adjusted price-earnings ratio in 2008 had 14 times less common, Baosteel, Anshan Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel fell to 13 times more value significantly undervalued.”

While Angang Steel Company Limited, as the industry leader in cost control, and has a saddle of the merger integration of the assets expected to be more optimistic by Guotai Junan. Cui Jing Yi also proposed and concern Bayi Iron & Steel (600581.SH) and other mineral resources that they have listed.

The evening of April 1, Jinling Mining (000655.SZ) released a notice, said quarterly results, expected 1-3 month net profit rose 200% -250%. Cause changes in performance since the fourth quarter of last year by the impact of the international iron ore market conditions, domestic iron ore prices to gradually improve. In the first quarter a year earlier, the company Powdered Iron prices much higher than that.
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